The volatility of the stock market has increased.

The volatility of the stock market is increasing. Do not chase after the high and continue to seek certain opportunities
Original 2021-07-07 14:52·Guo Yiming
Viewpoint: The signs of stagflation and overheating are gradually being released. Although the economic recovery is still accelerating, the economic recovery has entered the late stage. As the economic recovery enters the late stage and the liquidity margin tightens, the next substantial tightening will also be It is a trend, which is not good news for the stock market. And after the decline since mid-February, the bull market pattern is also expected to undergo major changes. The bull market is still not over, but it has entered the late stage of the bull market, and the overall opportunity is not obvious. Pay attention to the local sectors and the local bull market. opportunity.

The volatility of the stock market is increasing. Do not chase after the high and continue to seek certain opportunities
On the same day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both opened low, oscillated upward after the opening, and then quickly pulled up and turned red. Since then, the index has continued to rise due to the strength of many sectors, while the Shenzhen Component Index has been eye-catching due to the sharp rise of the ChiNext, and the Shanghai Index has been relatively weak due to the differentiation of financial stocks. On the disk, electrical equipment led the rise, steel, non-ferrous metals, national defense forces, and medical and biological industries were strong. Multi-sector red markets were operating. Leisure services led the decline. Mining, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries fell.

Yesterday the market bottomed out and rebounded, but the intraday slump was indeed fierce. Today, the index opened low and moved high and rebounded across the board. This kind of large fluctuations, with frequent exchanges recently, has already shown the greater volatility of the market. Under this kind of fluctuation, in fact, the division between the plates is relatively large, the rotation is relatively fast, the style change is also unpredictable, and the operation difficulty is relatively large.

Entering the second half of the year, the market has obviously undergone great changes. The biggest change is that uncertainty and worries are heating up, and the power to support and boost the market is also weakening. When the market is rotating, the operation is actually The difficulty is gradually increasing.

The volatility of the stock market is increasing. Do not chase after the high and continue to seek deterministic opportunities
On the one hand, looking at the macro environment, the momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the margin of liquidity has continued to tighten, the strength of market support has been weakening, and the vibrating force has declined. Although the performance boost is expected to be relayed, the continuity remains to be seen; on the other hand, in the second half of the year, the market’s worries about policy tightening began to escalate. Although it is well-known that the policy does not turn sharply throughout the year, it is at the turning point of global liquidity. Basically established and multi-channel funds are prepared in advance for this, there will still be instinctive emotions; in addition, it is more important that the current valuations of most sectors are at a relatively high level, once liquidity tightens and market turmoil occurs , The downward shift of the center of gravity of high-end varieties is still a potential risk of market volatility. Coupled with the demand for capital adjustment and stock exchange, the probability of market volatility will increase.

Therefore, under the current market conditions, it is not advisable to be blindly short-sighted, but not to be bullish unscrupulously. Especially when the index is falling sharply, don’t panic, but when the index is rising sharply, you have to be cautious. For example, for the full-line rebound that day, it is not recommended to blindly pursue it here, because under the current plate rotation, chasing high means the risk of being caught.

The volatility of the stock market is increasing. Do not chase after the high and continue to seek deterministic opportunities
Therefore, for short-term rebounds, do not chase at will, but for high targets, you can consider appropriate reductions in rallies, and then seek new deterministic meetings, such as stagflation products in high-prosperity industries, such as those with good performance. Low-end varieties.

In short, combined with the macroeconomic situation and market performance, the possibility of systemic risk in the market in the second half of the year is very low, and more of it is the structure of the market with a rotating style. In this process, for consumer products, there may be a high probability that they can run through them, and you can focus on them, but the difficulty of stock selection may increase, and you need to be cautious. In addition, under the slowdown of economic recovery, the best investment cycle of procyclical products has passed, and the probability of repetition in the later period has increased. The overall allocation is recommended to reduce positions.

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